Indus Water Treaty Suspension and Lessons for the Proposed SL – India Power Grid Interconnection Project
Introduction
On
the 22nd of April 2025, the serene valleys of Pahalgam, Kashmir was
disturbed by a brutal terrorist attack which killed 26 innocent tourists. This
resulted in the suspension of Indus Water Treaty by India.
Above development and the proposed SL – India Power Grid Interconnection Project reminded me of a small section in the famous treatise on statecraft, “The Prince” by Niccolo Machiavelli which says:
in the beginning of the malady, it is easy to cure but difficult to detect, but in the course of time… it becomes easy to detect but difficult to cure. This it happens in affairs of state… (Machiavelli, 1536, p.38).
Above
statement highlights the importance of identifying problems in advance and duly
curing them before they become incurable.
Therefore,
this article will briefly discuss about India – Pakistan relations, their water
dispute and subsequent adoption of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). Thereafter, it
will discuss the important provisions of IWT and its ultimate suspension after
the Pahalgam Attack and legality of such suspension. Then the article will
discuss some of the lessons that can be drawn from IWT suspension. Thereafter, the
article will discuss Sri Lanka’s electricity system and proposed SL – India
Power Grid Interconnection Project applying the lessons drawn from IWT
suspension.
Partition
and India – Pakistan Relations
In
the lead up to the independence of British India, Indian Muslims,
demanded a separate nation for them. Some attribute this to Muhammed Ali
Jinnah’s belief that Indian Congress Party was not giving due regard to the
interests of Muslims. Therefore, Jinnah and the Muslim League fought for an
independent Islamic nation (Mourya & Mittal, 2021) which ultimately led to
the partition of British India in 1947 along the “borders drawn up by the
British Barrister Sir Cyril Radcliffe who had famously never travelled further
east than Paris before” (Phillips, 2017, p.1). However, the mass movement of
people during the partition proved to be “frightening and gruesome for both the
nations” (Mourya & Mittal, 2021, p.22).
Since
then, India and Pakistan have looked at each other with suspicion and caution. They
fought each other in multiple wars and conflicts. During the 1971 war, India
aided East Pakistan to declare independence from West Pakistan creating the
modern-day Bangladesh.
Substantial
part of this feud can be attributed to the territorial dispute over the beautiful
Kashmir region which was divided by 1947 partition.
Further, mutual accusations of cross border terrorism also play a key part in the tensions between them.
Water Dispute between the Upper Riparian State and the Lower Riparian State
As
noted by Bhasin (2012), “partition was a unique phenomenon” in which even the
“roads and railroads were cut, rivers and streams were divided” (p. XL).
Importantly,
partition divided the Kashmir region which rests “directly across the vast and
vital Indus River Basin” and caused a dispute over territorial and water rights
between the two nations (Birch et al, 2006, p.32). Based on geography, India
was the upper riparian state having potential control over the rivers while
Pakistan was the lower riparian state.
According
to Birch et al. (2006):
Pakistani
provinces of Punjab and Sindh and Indian controlled Kashmir and much of the
Indian states of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan rely largely on the water of the
Indus and its tributaries… without the water of these rivers, much of the
region would be a desert (p.32).
These
disputed water ways were essential to both nations as they supplied the water required
for agriculture, irrigation and industrial/domestic uses while contributing to
the hydropower projects (Birch et al, 2006). However, based on Sir Cyril
Radcliff’s partition, “Pakistan found that the water, which is its lifeblood,
originated in another country with which it had hostile relations” (Birch et
al, 2006, p.32).
In
1947 itself, the 02 nations concluded a Standstill Agreement providing for the
waterflow from India to Pakistan. When that Agreement ended on 01st
April 1948, India stopped the water flow immediately (Birch et al, 2006). However,
another agreement was signed in May 1948 but Pakistan subsequently backed out claiming
that they “signed under duress” (Birch et al., 2006, p.32).
Thereafter,
the World Bank offered to mediate the resolution of this issue and both nations
accepted the offer. Upon extensive negotiations for over 10 years, the Indus
Water Treaty was signed by Indian PM Nehru, Pakistani President Field
Marshal Ayub Khan (Curtis, 2025).
In
this context, IWT stands as a unique diplomatic achievement of India and Pakistan
with the aid of World Bank and other international supporters which peacefully
resolved a crucial bilateral issue.
Important Provisions of Indus Water Treaty 1960
Following
are some of the important provisions in the IWT 1960. Under Article II (1), all
Eastern Rivers (The Sutlej, The Beas, and The Ravi) were made available
for the unrestricted use of India.
Under
Article III (1) all Western Rivers (The Indus, The Jhelum, and
The Chenab) were made available for the unrestricted use of Pakistan. Under Article
III (2), India was made obliged to let flow all waters of Western Rivers
and not permit any interferences with these waters unless as limitedly provided.
Further,
under Article VI (1), both countries were made obliged to regularly
exchange data relating to the water flow and utilization of waters such
as the daily gauge, discharge data and daily extractions for and releases from
reservoirs.
Article
VIII,
created the Permanent Indus Commission comprising with 02 commissioners,
one from each country. This commission was tasked with implementing the IWT,
promoting cooperation, settling questions, undertaking inspections and preparing
annual reports etc.
Article
IX, provided
for the settlement of differences and disputes. Accordingly, disputes
relating to interpretation or application of IWT or disputes concerning the
existence of any relevant fact are to be first examined by the Permanent Indus
Commission though agreement. Where unsuccessful, dispute is to be resolved by
other means such as through a Natural Expert or Negotiation with or without
mediation or through arbitration.
Pahalgam Attack and Suspension of IWT
However,
a day after the brutal Pahalgam terrorist attack, India’s Ministry of External
Affairs announced that they will be holding the 1960 Indus Water Treaty in
abeyance with immediate effect “until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably
abjures its support for cross border terrorism” (Ministry of External Affairs,
2025, p.1, emphasis added).
Apart
from the suspension, it was reported that India ceased sharing water data with
Pakistan. Such cessation of data sharing by India negatively impacts Pakistan
by disturbing its disaster, agricultural and irrigational planning abilities
(Vishwanath, 2025). Further, some in India even threatened to block the water flow
to Pakistan (Curtis, 2025).
In
response, Pakistani PM reiterated the importance of those waterways and
emphasized that any attempts to block the water flow, violating the IWT 1960, will
be responded with full force (Dawn, 2025).
However,
the legality/illegality of India’s actions - such as stopping water
and not sharing data etc. - depends on whether the 1960 IWT is legally
suspended or not. Therefore, the following discussion deals with that.
Legality of the IWT Suspension
Interestingly,
India, in its communiques, used the term “abeyance” instead of the word
“suspension”. However, Cambridge Dictionary (2025) notes that, the word ‘abeyance’
is synonymous with the word ‘suspension’. Therefore, it is pertinent to
consider the rules relating to suspension of an international treaty to
consider the legality of India’s decision to hold the Indus Water Treaty in
abeyance.
The
general rules of International Law relating to Treaties are contained in Vienna
Convention of Law of Treaties 1969 (VCLT). However, India is not a state
party to VCLT and thereby, they may argue that VCLT rules don’t apply to them. Yet,
it is generally accepted that, VCLT mirrors the Customary International Law
relating to treaties. Therefore, it can be counter-argued that, those rules are
nevertheless applicable to India in a customary international law sense
(Bajoria, 2025).
Thereby,
Article 42(2) of VCLT notes that, suspension of an international
treaty may take place only according to the provisions of the relevant treaty
or according to VCLT.
Therefore,
it is pertinent to consider the relevant provisions within Indus Water Treaty
first.
· According to Article XII (3), IWT may be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the 02 governments.
· As per Article XII (4), IWT “shall continue in force until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the 02 governments”.
· Further, there are no provisions in the IWT providing for its suspension (Curtis, 2025).
Therefore,
it is clear that, IWT is not duly suspended under above provisions in this
scenario.
Secondly,
it must be considered whether IWT is duly suspended under VCLT
provisions.
· As per Article 57, a treaty may be suspended in conformity with the provisions of that treaty or with the consent of other party. However, as noted above, IWT is not duly suspended under its provisions and India has not obtained Pakistan’s consent for the suspension of IWT. Therefore, IWT is not duly suspended under this article.
· As per Article 60, suspension of a treaty may take place where the other party has committed a “material breach”.
Interestingly, the arguments contained in the official notification sent to Pakistan by India’s Secretary to the Ministry of Jal Shakti on the suspension of IWT, hints their apparent reliance under this ground as follows;
The obligation to honour a
treaty in good faith is fundamental to a treaty. However, what we have seen
instead is sustained cross-border terrorism by Pakistan targeting the Indian
Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir… The resulting security uncertainties have
directly impeded India’s full utilisation of its rights under the Treaty (Mukherjee, 2025, p.1).
Furthermore, apart from
other breaches committed by it, Pakistan has refused to respond to India’s
request to enter into negotiations as envisaged under the Treaty and is thus in
breach of the Treaty (Mukherjee,
2025, p.1).
However, as per Article 60 (3), a “material
breach” of a treaty consists in; the repudiation of a treaty against VCLT
provisions; the violation of a provision essential to the accomplishment of the
object or purpose of the treaty.
Since
Pakistan has not repudiated the IWT, India must prove that Pakistan (and not
anyone else) has violated a provision essential to the accomplishment of the
object or purpose of the treaty.
· As per Article 61, a treaty may be suspended where there is a temporary impossibility of performance resulting from the disappearance or destruction of an object indispensable for the execution of treaty.
· As per Article 62, suspension of a treaty may take place in limited instances where a fundamental change of circumstances has occurred.
The above noted notification, sent by Jal Shakti Secretary, also hints at their reliance under this ground as it refers to an alleged fundamental change as it says:
These changes include significantly altered population
demographics, the need to accelerate the development of clean energy and other
changes in the assumptions underlying the sharing of waters under the treaty
(Mukherjee, 2025, p.1)
However, as per Article 62 (1), India
must prove that; the circumstances (which is now fundamentally changed) constituted
an essential basis for parties’ consent; and the effect of the change radically
transformed the extent of obligations under the treaty.
Therefore,
in summary, IWT is not duly suspended under its own provisions and its proper
suspension under Art 60 or 62 of VCLT is open to debate as one could argue that
India’s real concern was not a material breach by Pakistan or a fundamental
change of circumstances but their national security and strategic concerns.
Their own submission that that they decided to hold IWT in abeyance “until
Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross border
terrorism” may support such assertion (Ministry of External Affairs, 2025, p.1).
Lessons from Indus Water Treaty Suspension
Suspension
of the IWT, as discussed above, provides some valuable lessons concerning state
dependency on other nations over vital resources. Therefore, writer believes
that such lessons should not be ignored but be studied and be applied by leaders
before committing to long term obligations concerning vital resources.
Therefore, writer discusses 02 such lessons that can be drawn from the IWT suspension
as follows.
Lesson
No. 1
When
a state relies on another nation for vital resources, it risks those resources
being held hostage or being used as leverage or even being weaponized to the
detriment of that dependent state one day. Situation is worse if the reliance
is absolute without alternatives.
In
contemporary international relations, many aspects, including reliance for
vital resources, can be weaponized by a state against another. India’s External
Affairs Minister (EAM) Jaishankar notes in this regard that:
The
real problem, however, is the weaponization of everything. In recent years, the
world has recognized how domains like trade, finance, investment and logistics
can be leveraged for strategic purposes… it can be directing or withholding the
flow of tourists, the supply of raw materials and components or exercising the
power of a large vendor or customer (Jaishankar, 2024, p.165).
Interestingly,
EAM Jaishankar also notes that “there is less questioning now when nations use
every instrument of influence at their command to advance their interests”
(Jaishankar, 2024, p.167).
Situation
is worst if the reliance is absolute and there are no alternatives. Pakistan’s
challenging situation is a prime example of this. Pakistan was and is naturally
forced to rely on the water streams flowing from Indian territory without
leaving her a choice. This lack of alternatives/absolute reliance puts Pakistan
in a vulnerable position allowing India to use it as leverage if and when wanted.
Therefore, unless and until this absolute reliance is remedied, Pakistan’s
strategic vulnerability will persist.
Further,
such weaponization can materialize at any time. For an example, IWT was
suspended disturbing the water flow and data sharing only after 65 years since its
adoption.
Therefore,
it is important to be mindful of these threats when relying on another nation
for vital resources and take precautionary and protective measures accordingly.
Lesson No. 2
The
inking of an International Agreement does not guarantee the full and exact adherence
by its state parties always, as states may prioritize their ‘interests’ over
their ‘international law obligations’ one day if and when they are in conflict.
For
an example, India was under an obligation to let the rivers flow and share data
with Pakistan under the IWT. However, after the Pahalgam Attack, India opted to
suspend the IWT choosing their interests over obligations. While, India did
submit justifications for their actions, the reality is that, there is no court
– with powers to implement its decisions - to assess the legality of
those justifications and dispense justice accordingly.
Therefore,
it is important to avoid loop holes in such treaties and take precautionary and
protective measures to face the possibility of a state prioritizing their
interests over obligations one day.
Having
considered the above developments, this article now pivots to Sri Lanka’s power
system and the proposed SL - India Power Grid Interconnection Project.
Snapshot of Sri Lanka’s Power System
Electricity
is vital to individuals and nations alike. The prolonged power cuts during SL’s
economic crisis in 2022 and recent island wide power outage that occurred on
the 09th February 2025 (where a monkey was blamed!) are capable
of reminding us of the importance of electricity to individuals as well as to the
nation.
Initially,
Sri Lanka’s power system was largely based on hydropower and gradually
oil-based power plants and coal-based power plants were added to meet the
growing electricity demand. Today, the “total installed capacity of the
national power grid as at 31st December 2024 is 6069MW” of which 64%
of electricity generation is through renewable energy sources (Major Hydro,
mini hydro, wind, solar, biomass, municipal solid waste) and rest of the 36% of
electricity generation is through fossil fuels (coal, thermal oils etc.). It is
the goal of the GOSL to “obtain 70% of electricity generation from renewable
energy sources by 2030” (CEB, 2025, p.2).
SL’s
transmission network, which is owned and operated by Ceylon Electricity Board
consists of “998km of 220kV transmission lines and 2,405km of 132kV lines”
along with “82 Grid Substations and 16 Switching stations” (CEB, 2025, p.4).
SL – India Power Grid Interconnection Project
SL
and India have envisaged the interconnection of power grids of both nations for
some time. In 2006, NEXANT with aid of USAID conducted a pre-feasibility study
on this and subsequently, it was updated by India’s Power Grid Corporation with
USAID’s support. Further, in 2010 governments of India and SL signed a MOU to
conduct a detailed feasibility study (Weerasinghe, 2023). Interestingly, USAID
has taken a keen interest in this regard.
However,
in a major development, a Memoranda of Understanding was exchanged between India and Sri
Lanka to execute a High Voltage Direct Current Interconnection for
Import/Export of Power during Indian Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka
in April 2025 (President’s Office, 2025). As per Article I of that
MOU, connection will be made between Madurai to Mannar or any other route that
is more technically and economically feasible. While this is not a legally
binding treaty, it clearly shows the clarity of understanding between the 02
governments.
Highlighting
the importance of such connectivity, Pathfinder Foundation (2024, p.6) has noted
that it will “[enable] bidirectional electricity trade and [enhance] energy
security and efficiency of both countries” and “[ensure] a reliable and
sustainable power supply”.
Further,
SL could significantly reduce energy production costs and increase its power
availability through importing electricity from India through this project. Further,
the “ability to trade with India could improve grid resiliency in Sri Lanka
during contingency events” such as when there is “limited water available for
hydro generation” (NREL, 2018, p.38). Moreover, SL could also export
electricity to India (NREL, 2018).
However,
NREL (2018) notes that, while direct current ties may improve SL’s security of
electricity supply, it may also “create new operational and national security
risks” (p.48) such as by relying “heavily on imports to meet domestic electricity
needs” (p.38).
As
per Witharana (2023), advantage of a gird connection goes more to the nation
that produces more and he notes that, India is the world’s 3rd
largest electricity producer who exports electricity even to Bangladesh,
Myanmar and Nepal.
Further,
Alagiyawanna (2025, p.1) notes that “behind
this optimistic facade lies a serious threat to Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, energy
security, and long-term economic independence”. Some of his salient
points include;
·
Threat to local energy production through increased
reliance.
·
India gaining geopolitical leverage over
SL.
· Threat to SL’s ability to maintain a Non-Aligned
Foreign Policy if SL becomes dependent on India for electricity which is a vital
resource.
·
Technical, Cyber and Systemic risks as “failure
in one grid could cascade across the other creating widespread blackouts or
technical damage” (Alagiyawanna, 2025, p.1).
Therefore,
it is clear that, the proposed Power Grid Interconnection Project has both
advantages and potential disadvantages to Sri Lanka.
In
this background, the next section of this article will consider the application
of lessons drawn from IWT suspension into the proposed SL - Indo Power Grid Interconnection
Project. However, prior to that, it will briefly look at Sri Lanka – India
relations over the decades to understand how it has changed over time.
Snapshot of SL – India relation
Kodikara
(2018) notes that, Sri Lankan leaders after independence, have had “ambivalent
attitude towards India, nursing a kind of love – hate relationship”
(p.19, emphasis added).
Prior
to independence, Indian National Congress and Ceylon National Congress worked
closely towards achieving independence to their respective nations from the
British (Jayawardene, 1992). However, India’s relations with SL were significantly
damaged due to the approach taken by India during the early stages of Sri
Lanka’s fight against terrorism.
For an example, Jayawardene (1992) notes that, Tamil terror outfits even received training and other facilities from bases in India.
Moreover,
prior to the signing of 1987 Indo Lanka Accord:
Government
of India continued to campaign throughout the world against the Government of
Sri Lanka. The Indian embassies abroad became centers of support for the
terrorists and separatist groups. This led to the reluctance on the part of
some of the western powers to supply arms and other aid to SL. They were all
anxious not to offend India (Jayawardene, 1992, p.106).
Further,
when SL forces were about to end the war on terror with its Operation
Liberation in 1987, India, in a manifest violation of Sri Lanka’s sovereignty,
interfered in SL’s internal affairs; militarily by violating SL’s
airspace; and diplomatically by putting severe pressure to SL Government
through High Commissioner Dixit (Jayawardene, 1992). As a result, SL’s war
on terror continued until 2009.
However,
in recent times, SL - India relations have improved significantly, especially
under India’s Neighborhood First Policy. According to Indian EAM Jaishankar
(2024):
The
heart of the Neighborhood First Policy is for India to convince its immediate
neighbours of the benefits of closer ties and then proceed to make that happen
on the ground (p.65).
During
the Coronavirus pandemic, India gifted much needed covid vaccines under its
Vaccine Maitri program together with other medical supplies to SL (High
Commission of India in Colombo, 2021). During SL’s economic crisis in 2022,
India aided Sri Lanka expeditiously by facilitating 4 billion US Dollars and by
assisting her bid to secure IMF financial support (Rafi, 2024). Further, India has
continued her support in various other ways such as by extending help to
repatriate Sri Lankans from Israel due to Israel – Iran conflict (Newswire, 2025).
Therefore,
from jeopardizing SL’s national security in 1980s to expeditiously aiding SL
during her worst economic crisis in 2022, SL – India relations have come a long
way.
However, the reality is that, no one can predict the future of SL – India relations with full certainty as it will depend on various contexts in which this relationship will develop and personalities that will lead the two nations in future.
Application of lessons from IWT suspension into SL – India Power Grid Interconnection Project
With
the above understanding on SL – India relations, writer will now apply the 02
lessons drawn from IWT suspension into the proposed SL – India Power Grid Interconnection
project.
Firstly,
if SL becomes over reliant on Indian electricity imports, India will be able to
use such reliance as a weapon/leverage one day at their discretion, to the
detriment of SL, as electricity is a vital resource which illuminates the
economy and individuals on a daily basis.
Alagiyawanna
(2025, p.1) referring to a recent incident where India’s Adani group reduced
the power supply to Bangladesh by half over unpaid bills causing widespread
blackouts in Bangladesh notes that, “if SL becomes similarly reliant, the
power to disrupt our economy will no longer rest solely with us” and such
ability could be used as a bargaining chip in future.
Importantly,
SL is not constrained as much as Pakistan in her water situation. Hence, a deal
of this nature should be entered with utmost care, precautions and
acknowledgement of the fact that it could bring negative consequences even
after many years from today.
Alagiyawanna
(2025, p.1)
notes in this regard that, “SL must not cede control of this backbone
[electricity] to any foreign entity, however friendly or cooperative they may
appear today”.
Therefore,
it is important to create effective alternatives to reduce the reliance on
Indian electricity imports and develop our local electricity industry to ultimately
achieve self-sufficiency in electricity by employing diversified renewable sources.
Further, steps must be taken to avoid any sort of absolute reliance at
all costs to safeguard SL’s strategic autonomy, national security and
independence.
Secondly,
SL must acknowledge that, despite how comforting the provisions of a
prospective treaty in this regard may seem, it does not guarantee the full and
exact adherence always as India may prioritize their interests over obligations
one day, if and when they are in conflict.
While, India may submit justifications for their actions in such a situation, the reality is that, there is no court to swiftly and effectively dispense justice by assessing the legality of those justifications. In such a situation, SL will become helpless given the economic power and influence of India.
Therefore,
it is important firstly, to ensure that any prospective Treaty
between SL and India on High Voltage Direct Current Interconnection does
not contain any loop holes and secondly, to take effective precautionary and
protective measures to face the possibility of India prioritizing their
interests over obligations one day.
Final Remarks on SL – Indo Power Grid Interconnection Project
In
today’s highly interconnected world, it is unwise for Sri Lanka to stand
against global, regional or bilateral cooperation based on misguided rhetoric.
Instead, Sri Lanka should explore all such available and effective opportunities
of economic cooperation to increase its balance sheet performance and economic
development. In this regard, fostering good relations with our immediate
neighbor India is of utmost value.
However,
it is equally important to safeguard Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, territorial
integrity, national security and strategic autonomy when entering into
partnerships, especially, over vital resources. Further, writer wishes to note
here the duty of present generation to ensure that their actions will not put
the future generations of Sri Lanka in harm’s way.
Therefore,
this writer notes that, the proposed High Voltage Direct Current Interconnection Project
between Sri Lanka and India connecting the power grids of the two nations must
be implemented only after identifying, assessing and remedying all associated
strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities of this project in all
departments. Such an assessment should involve the consideration of SL’s strategic
autonomy, economic development, regional and bilateral cooperation and national
security including economic security and energy security.
Further, this writer
suggests that it is prudent to consider the 02 lessons (supra) drawn from IWT
suspension when deciding on this project.
Conclusion
This
article briefly discussed the India – Pakistan relations, their water dispute
and subsequent adoption of Indus Water Treaty. Thereafter, it discussed the
important provisions of IWT and its ultimate suspensions subsequent to Pahalgam
terror Attack and the legality of such suspension. Then the article discussed
two important lessons drawn from the IWT suspension. Thereafter, Sri Lanka’s
electricity system, proposed SL – India Power Grid Interconnection Project were
discussed, applying the lessons drawn from IWT suspension into the proposed
project.
In
conclusion, this writer reemphasizes the importance of detecting the maladies
of proposed Power Grid Interconnection project at the earliest to cure them before
it becomes incurable. In that way, Sri Lanka will be able to enjoy both the fruits
of cooperation and safety of her vital interests.
Thank
you.
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